Football is back.
Most Septembers, Bears fans all say that same phrase and get irrationally hyped up for an opening game that normally brings us all back down to earth. This year, we can actually say it and mean it. With a Ben Johnson-esque sternness and confidence in our vocal cords.
The 2025 season was magical. The start of a new era was refreshing. Between the miracle comebacks, beating the Packers twice, and finishing one score away from the NFC Championship game, it restarted Chicago’s heartbeat.
What does the sequel look like? Well, the binary code answer would be either a crash down to a dismal reality or another step up the ladder towards a championship.
Football is back because the Bears have a legitimate football program that will contend every single season. The margins are inconsequential when you have an elite head coach and a superstar quarterback. Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams started this offseason at zero and they’re heading back up the mountain.
Regression Candidate
“We’re the number one regression candidate.”
Even Ben Johnson acknowledged the regression talk this offseason. NFL experts all over the country are picking everybody but the Bears to win the NFC North. They’re citing the 29th ranked defense (yards/game), the unrepeatable comebacks, and Caleb Williams’ completion percentage as the main reasons why the Bears will finish with a worse record than last year.
On the surface, I get it. The Bears were not a good football team for the majority of last season. They came out of the gate as a pushover and started the season 0-2 in embarrassing fashion. After squeaking their way to 4-3, they started to embrace their new identity when Colston Loveland played pinball off of Cincinnati Bengals defenders to win a wild 47-42 shootout. It wasn’t until a Week 13 rushing showcase against the Eagles or even an efficient 31-3 crushing of the Browns in Week 15 that the offense settled in.
The offense was mostly inefficient. The defense was mostly non-existent. How did that team go 11-6? How could they ever improve on that showing?
Regression goes both ways. The Bears are due for positive regression in two main areas, and that will more than offset the other uncertainties heading into this season.
1) Another year in Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen’s systems
Caleb Williams threw for 3,942 yards with 27 TD and 7 INT in his first year in one of the most complicated systems in the NFL. Oh, and that was after a chaotic rookie season under 2 head coaches and 3 offensive coordinators. Offense has to be understood and executed correctly. Most of the offensive unit is returning, and they will be in sync way more often.
Nothing looked right on defense. They couldn’t stop the run, and anyone with speed could blow through the pass coverage over the middle. This offseason, their top 4 in interceptions (18 combined) and top 4 in tackles (378 combined) left for other teams. Plus, the big free agent signing of Coby Bryant won’t help, and Kyler Gordon is still injured.
We’ll see if the coaches were being realistic when they said improvements will come when they coach up the players better, but it has some credibility. Add in the additions of Devin Bush, Dillon Thieneman, and 5 new defensive linemen, and we may see a new version of a Bears defense. A purge from the Eberflus scheme was necessary.
2) Better quarterback play and offensive production
The 2025 offense was known for its highlight reel plays and pre-snap penalties. The rhythms of a quality offense never fully clicked, so there were too many points left on the board. Caleb Williams almost reached 4,000 yards despite Rome Odunze missing 5 games and playing hurt in others, the 4th highest drop percentage in the NFL, throwing the ball away an NFL-most 40 times, and having the lowest on target percentage in the league on all throws. I will continue to stand on this: Caleb Williams is not an inaccurate quarterback. He keeps the ball out of harm’s way, and he takes aggressive shots down the field. It takes all 11 to make a play work.
William’s target with the most receiving yards was Colston Loveland who was absent from the gameplan for the first half of the season. He led the team in receptions (58) and receiving yards (713). The crew around Williams was not holding up their end of the bargain.
Caleb Williams is a star, and we will see it even more so this year. He’s becoming a master of the offense and wants to be the greatest to ever play the game. The respect is evident. The clutch gene is unmatched. The Iceman is here to stay.
Is This 2019 All Over Again?
The eerie similarities between the Ryan Pace and Ryan Poles tenures were evident when Poles received his extension in July 2025. I wrote about my cautious excitement here with a direct comparison to Pace’s time as GM.
Pace was 14-34 in his first 3 seasons. One year after picking his new quarterback, he hired a bright offensive mind. Then in 2018, the Bears were great and made the playoffs at 12-4.
Poles was 15-36 in his first 3 seasons. One year after picking his new quarterback, he hired a bright offensive mind. Then in 2025, the Bears were great and won a playoff game at 11-6.
2019 was an 8-8 slap in the face that forced a new regime cycle and a big restart button on the Bears organization. Again. It showed us that Mitch Trubisky was never going to be the guy, and Matt Nagy had no idea how to coach up a winning football team that didn’t have a historically elite defense under Vic Fangio.
Should we be scared of 2026?
As Bears fans, yes. It’s in our blood. We don’t believe anything will ever be different because we have been burned too many times.
Both of the 2018 and 2025 defenses took the ball away at an incomprehensible rate. Both of the offenses ran the ball fairly well. Both knew how to win close games. Both were the first iteration of a winning Bears team in a long time.
Last year was “fluky” by all definitions, but there is a real foundation that won’t crumble.
You succeed in the NFL with a coach and a quarterback. This is different.
Ben Johnson tells his players that winning the Super Bowl is the expectation. Cole Kmet just wrote in The Players’ Tribune that he believes it’s a realistic outcome.
“Here’s what I’m excited about…I think I made a comment last year about how we’re not practicing at a championship level yet. I’m not saying that this year.”
The Bears have the right standards in place now. This isn’t a house of cards built on goal line trick plays. It’s a program reaching towards a trophy.
Predictions
Season Record: 12-5
NFC North Champions
NFC Championship Game appearance
Games I circled on the schedule (besides the Packers):
1) October 18th at Atlanta: The Ryan Poles & Ian Cunningham Bowl - Can the Bears defense stop a loaded offense?
2) November 2nd at Seattle: The Super Bowl Champions are the only true litmus test, right? - Will the Bears offense perform against a top defense?
3) December 19th at Buffalo: The DJ Moore revenge game - Plus, how fun will it be to watch Caleb Williams vs. Josh Allen?
Bold Predictions:
1) Caleb Williams will throw for 4,500 yards
2) The defensive line will carry the defense
3) Colston Loveland will finish Top 5 in the NFL in receiving TD
4) 3 players will have 4+ interceptions
5) Devin Bush will receive DPOY votes
