It's time to win.
Kyle Davidson handed the keys to the Blackhawks' young core after last year's trade deadline when they said goodbye to Captain Nick Foligno, Jason Dickinson, and Connor Murphy. When the season officially descended into another last place finish, the players declared that they didn't want to lose anymore. This would be the last season without a playoff appearance. This would be the last sell-off. This would be the last disappointment.
When the general manager emphasizes the need to jump up the standings two seasons in a row, and the team finishes with the 2nd lowest point total in the NHL for four straight seasons, it's difficult to know when the switch will flip. If improvement was expected before, why would it finally happen now?
This is officially Connor Bedard's team. He was named the 37th captain in Blackhawks history and made his intentions very clear in The Players' Tribune:
"And of course the other side of that balance is I know I do have this big responsibility, which is to help bring the Blackhawks franchise back to where it belongs. Playing tough, winning hockey. Making deep playoff runs. And most importantly — and I can promise you it’ll happen — competing for Stanley Cups."
With Bedard steering the ship, more top prospects joining the squad, and a clear path into the future, this season will be the beginning of a new contention window. Let's dive into it.
The Core Has Arrived
With Roman Kantserov set to make his NHL debut in the season opener and Anton Frondell ready to embark on his first full NHL season, the Blackhawks' roster is now jam packed with high draft picks. Seven of Davidson's eleven 1st round picks from his four drafts are on the roster (Korchinski, Nazar, Rinzel, Bedard, Moore, Levshunov, Frondell). Two 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick are also on the team (Greene, Kantserov, Lardis).
Ten Kyle Davidson draft picks are surrounded by trade acquisitions and free agent signings from the last few years who were brought to Chicago to supplement the existing prospect pool. This is the truest version of a new era Blackhawks roster that we have seen to date. Many people believed the Blackhawks left Bedard out on an island without any forward help, but his linemates simply needed more time before making it to the United Center.
When the Blackhawks begin making playoff runs, this group of draft picks will drive the show. This is the start of a group beginning to gain chemistry, develop into stars, and get calloused in a demanding league.
Davidson always said he would add proven talent when the time was right. Once he could evaluate their players enough to the point of seeing visible gaps in talent, he would pull the trigger. In what was a historically pricy trade for Bowen Byram, when a Top-5 draft pick traded hands for the first time since 2008, he landed his number one defenseman. Levshunov, Rinzel, or someone else could still develop into a star, but the inexperienced blue line and ineffective power play needed a leader.
Byram is a 25-year old veteran whose talents have been hidden. In a stacked blue line in Colorado and Buffalo, he has never been the main guy. The Blackhawks decided to bet big on him being a #1 defenseman, and he seems up to the task. He fits the mold of the current roster build as an athletic, fast, all-around defenseman. He's a Stanley Cup champion with 27 playoff games of experience. Last season, he was 95th percentile in 20-22 mph speed bursts and took 47 more shots than the average defenseman. Byram elevates the entire group.
Fluke or Trend
The Hawks finished with too many statistical extremes last season. Regression could be expected year to year, but a mix of youth, roster turnover, and luck make its predictiveness less certain. What will carry over into this season?
1) Penalty Kill
The kill will be a brand unit after losing 3 of its top 4 skaters in TOI (Murphy, Mikheyev, Dickinson). Last season's veteran group finished 2nd in the NHL on the penalty kill (83.6%) and kept the Hawks alive in a lot of lopsided games. The Coles (Ian Cole and Cole Smith) will play big roles for a unit that will most likely come back down to earth.
2) Overtime
3-on-3 was the Hawks' worst nightmare last season. They went 7-14 in overtime/shootout games and only won 4 games in the 3-on-3 period. With another year of maturation for the young players and some statistical regression, this record should balance out or even tip the Hawks' way in the future. They will have electric 3-man lines to throw out there in overtime.
3) Power Play
Watching the Hawks power play is the other option in every question related to the Bulls getting a defensive stop, the Bears getting an early lead, or the Cubs driving in a run with runners in scoring position. It often feels like Bedard has to weave his way through 4 defenders to enter the zone, and they lose possession after a pass or two. They finished 4th to last in the NHL (16.9%) last season and never found a rhythm. I expect a massive turnaround with Byram quarterbacking the top unit, Patrick Kane playing a key role, and finally having competent scorers in both units.
4) Blown Leads
The Jeff Blashill Hawks let go of the rope less often than in the past. There were occasional blowouts where poor play escalated, but one mistake didn't routinely snowball into multiple goal streaks. Even though the effort and ability to stay in games was evident last season, they blew a lead in 28 games and lost in 11 games when they had a 3rd quarter lead. They need to learn winning habits, and their inexperience may continue to plague them.
Biggest Questions
1) Will another young forward trend towards stardom?
I stand by Frank Nazar as a star. Frondell and Kantserov could get there. Moore and Lardis have potential. If 2 of them become stars alongside Bedard, this rebuild will go to a whole new level.
2) Who will remain at center long-term?
Kantserov, Nazar, Frondell, and Greene get the first run with Bedard on the shelf due to injury. When Bedard returns, I assume Kantserov will move over to the wing. Moore has also shown promise at center. They're extremely deep at the position, and their line makeup will be fascinating to monitor to find out who will drive each line for years to come.
3) Will Levshunov and/or Rinzel become a steady contributor?
Rinzel burst onto the scene in his taste of the NHL at the end of the 2024-2025 season. Unfortunately, he got lost in the weeds in 54 games last season. Levshunov still needs time to figure it out, but he was the 2nd overall draft pick for a reason. Both players still have unlimited ceilings.
4) Will Arvid Soderblom hang on to his role?
Most contending teams have an excellent goalie duo, so we need to see a turnaround from Soderblom's ugly 2025-2026 season (3.80 GAA, .880 SV%). Drew Commesso is waiting in the wings and could see significant NHL time.
5) Will the Hawks have 4 impactful lines for the full 84-game season?
The forward lineup is finally deep enough to be respectable from top to bottom. As a third line enthusiast, having Nazar or Frondell center a formidable, two-way, third line bodes very well for the Hawks.
Predictions
40-35-9, 89 points
5th in Central
Miss playoffs
Bold Predictions
1) Patrick Kane will be a point-per-game player
2) Power Play will finish Top 5 in the NHL
3) 260 goals as a team (50 more than last season)
4) 7 players will have 40+ points
5) Frank Nazar will score 30 goals
