Projecting the Cubs rotation in the second half and beyond

Life Without The Ace

Losing Justin Steele was a dagger to the heart.

After solidifying his role as the anchor of a shaky rotation, Steele made it his mission to be the Cubs' ace for the entirety of the 2025 season. Then the unthinkable happened. It wasn't a fluky Opening Day leg injury, and it wasn't just a minor arm setback. It was a UCL surgery that would end his season. How could the Cubs still make a playoff run without him?

He’s the clear cut leader of the pack. Everyone could tangibly see that when he exploded at the dugout in June 2024 after a couple defensive misplays. He cares deeply, and he has the bulldog mentality of a playoff ace like we have seen before in Chicago.

After Steele went down, Shota Imanaga missed almost 2 months due to a hamstring injury. Colin Rea moved into the rotation from his long relief role, and Cade Horton earned a call to the show.

With Shota back, here’s the current rotation:

Since Ben Brown is back down in AAA to refine his mechanics, Jordan Wicks is just starting to find himself again, and nobody else is knocking at the door, outside help will be necessary to make a playoff push.

Taillon and Rea have ERAs over 4.00 and aren’t showing signs of turning a corner.

Will Jed Hoyer get aggressive, and more importantly, will Tom Ricketts shell out the cash he refused to spend after Cody Bellinger was sent to New York?

Second Half

I’m guessing Colin Rea will be the next starter to be pushed out of the rotation due to his recent struggles and inability to miss bats. His Statcast page is VERY blue.

5.23 xERA, 13th percentile in all 3: exit velocity, whiff rate, K rate

His early season Cy Young campaign came to a screeching halt, and he has allowed 27 ER in his last 7 starts combined.

Now for trades…

I keep wrestling with the debate over rentals and long-term commitments.

This Cubs season carried real playoff aspirations in March, but they have certainly outperformed their projections leading into trade deadline month. Jed Hoyer wanted this exact scenario!

So do you go all in with rentals because of the fierce lineup and uncertainty regarding Kyle Tucker's future? Or do you find impact contributors beyond this season knowing there are a lot of high profile prospects who still haven't sniffed the big leagues?

The choice is as obvious as the rotation's health down the stretch. Who knows!

I would lean towards a rental if the right guy was available. I'm talking ace level, 98+ fireballer, Game 1 of a playoff series guy. Unfortunately, I think the Chris Sale injury took that profile completely off the board for potential trades. The Cubs have enough arms to cover innings this season, but they need difference makers to help them in October.

But when we look at players with team control, next season looks cluttered with $55M tied up in 3 veteran starters (assuming Shota Imanaga's team option gets picked up). The entire rotation is slated to return. Along with those 3, you have Justin Steele returning from injury, Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Colin Rea (assuming he picks up his player option).

Neither path makes perfect sense based on their current roster construction. So here's where I land: I'd bet on them finding a lower cost, high level starter to squeeze some of those names out of the picture next year. Young guys don't always reach their potential, and any veteran with 1 year remaining can be moved if needed.

The trade targets are in that middle-of-the-rotation-with-upside range, but they could solidify the pitching staff moving forward. It's still too early to know who will end up selling since a lot of teams are hovering near .500 and probably want to push for a Wild Card spot.

I anticipate the Diamondbacks pushing forward and holding on to Merrill Kelly. The Marlins are streaking but should come back down to earth. However, I have no reason to believe the Cubs can help find Sandy Alcantara's ace form again, and Edward Cabrera has been largely unavailable since breaking into the majors.

If the Minnesota Twins decide to shake up their roster, Joe Ryan makes a lot of sense for the Cubs. He's arbitration eligible for 2 more seasons, pounds the strike zone (0.87 WHIP this season), and has an untouchable fastball (16 Run Value - 1st in MLB, according to Statcast). By comparison, Cubs starters are getting demolished when throwing fastballs this year. Matthew Boyd has the only effective one (8 Run Value, 17.0 Put Away %), but hitters still have a .265 xBA against it.

With trade deadline moves and Cade Horton getting shut down because of an innings limit, here is the projected second half rotation:

Rea and Kenta Maeda (who has been excelling at Iowa) can fill in as needed. Let's not forget Matthew Boyd was only expected to throw 120 innings this year and has already thrown 98.2...

Next Year (2026)

With Ryan or a different trade acquisition in the picture, the Cubs already have a full rotation of veterans and no spots for the young guns. Barring something catastrophic, they will give a spot to Horton. He's a major league pitcher now, and he's here to stay.

We can talk 6-man rotations all we want, but the cost/quality of your 6th/7th/8th pitchers needs to align with their role. Someone will have to be on their way out, and hopefully that can net the Cubs some bullpen stability. It would pain me to see Jameson Taillon go since he is a respected leader and had the 29th best ERA in 2022-2023 combined (pitchers with > 300 IP). 4.03 sounds high, but he lands right next to Dylan Cease, Aaron Nola, and Jack Flaherty.

Here's next year's projected rotation:

Five Years (2030)

Ah, 2030. A new decade. Beautiful sunshine at Wrigley Field. 5 championship rings on Kyle Tucker's left hand glistening in the 1:20 heat. And look who is getting the ball for the home opener...

Justin Steele needs to be a Cub for life.

The Cubs have been completely reliant on outside pitching help for the last decade. Theo Epstein intentionally built his team with that general approach, but pitching development has been underwhelming since Jed revamped their infrastructure.

Between the pitching lab, Tyler Zombro, and Carter Hawkins' influence from Cleveland, we were hoping for a bigger boost at the major league level. Optimistically, bullpen reclamation projects have been a wonder, and it's possible all of the recent draftees/acquisitions will be future evidence of the overhaul.

In all likelihood, the Cubs will have 2-4 starters in their 2030 rotation who are not currently in the organization. Pitching is fluid. Pitching is unforgiving. And we are all aware of the insane number of elbow surgeries.

But since most of the top free agents in 2026-2029 will be 36+ years old or will re-sign with their current teams, and since the Cubs are actually focused on drafting and developing pitchers…it’s fun to project an all-prospect rotation (outside of Steele).

Thomas White is the only one not currently with the Cubs. If they actually don’t agree on a deal with the Marlins at this deadline, why not in a couple years? Death, taxes, and the Miami Marlins trading away quality pitchers. White is the Marlins’ top prospect and is currently 28th in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects list (second highest lefty behind White Sox Noah Schultz).

His velocity stepped up last year with his fastball now averaging 94-97 mph. He’s a dominant 6’5” ace-like prospect who just needs to hone in on his command. That sounds like a guy worthy of a trade. Maybe he comes over at the 2027 trade deadline?

Wiggins has shined this season between A and AA and should continue to ascend. I’m higher on Wicks than others because of his makeup and flashes we have seen in the majors.

Ben Brown can become a free agent in 2030, so I’m not counting on him re-signing. If he turns into a 1 or 2, then that would be a different conversation. The rest of the current veteran staff will be gone by then.

Of course, there will be 5 more years of draft picks. There will be numerous trades. This isn’t a prediction exercise…I would fail.

All you need is a Best 5. Changes happen in the blink of an eye in baseball, so hopefully the Cubs’ pitching pipeline is built to last.