Ian Happ is the perfect leadoff hitter for the 2025 Cubs

The Face of the Lineup

Leadoff hitters are more than just table setters.

As the role of leadoff hitters evolves in MLB, the stature of the man at the top of the order remains the same. They are the head of the offense. When the offense is clicking, they are praised. When the offense is slumping, they are criticized.

The Juan Pierres and Scott Podseniks of the world are no longer expected to lead off. A .699 career OPS (you’re still a Cubs legend, Juan) at the top of the order would cause riots in the streets of any passionate baseball city. Slapping grounders and stealing bases were fun to watch in that era, but the analytics of the game caught up. Speed still kills, but run production is all that matters.

Now that the game's biggest stars are cemented into their teams' leadoff spots, an entire evening of baseball can feel like a sigh of relief with a first pitch home run. Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna Jr., and others have set the new precedent and lead their teams onto the field every day. The fate of the team rests in the superstar's hands as soon as the National Anthem ends. And if those prolific hitters have a few bad days, they also have to deal with the masses calling for a lineup change.

Since this is the trend, shouldn't the Cubs' new superstar be their leadoff hitter? Kyle Tucker is definitely in the conversation for Top 10 hitters in the league.

Sure, he would get on base a ton. But in a lineup suddenly relying on 3-4 run producers instead of a whole card of them, Tucker needs to be in a position to drive someone in.

So who SHOULD they turn to? The Cubs have left their leadoff spot in question since the departure of Dexter Fowler.

Fluidity at the Top

There haven't been many surefire leadoff hitters in recent Cubs history. Let's take a look at who spent the most games in that spot since Theo Epstein took over prior to the 2012 season:

You can see when the organization tried to keep pace with the current trends. 2017, with the silhouette of Dexter Fowler still in the left-handed batter's box, was the first experimental season with a few different names in the top spot. Even though Schwarber is excelling in Philadelphia right now, his time at the top in Chicago was not successful. On the other hand, 2018/2019 Anthony Rizzo at leadoff is a legend we will all tell our grandkids about.

The revolving door has been a popular topic for debate. Every season, it's the same questions. Who should lead off? Which speedster can they sign? Should they put a power hitter there? Does Theo (or Jed) realize he's been completely ignoring the importance of that spot?

While I understand the lack of a leadoff hitter being frustrating, the lack of talent in the lineup was the bigger issue since they earned World Series rings. It doesn't matter who's up top if there aren't enough players to field a contending team.

After so many years of instability, this year's iteration of the Cubs needed someone to provide stability. This is the team that was built around contact but struck out WAY too much over the last two seasons. They were searching for slug, and honestly they were searching for any semblance of an identity.

Ian Happ's baseball journey has prepared him for the job.

Longest Tenured Cub

"To be the longest tenured Cub, it’s special. It’s something that means a lot to me. I’ve cherished this organization and the fanbase."

This Spring Training, Ian Happ acknowledged his place as THE veteran at Wrigley Field. Even though Justin Steele was drafted in 2014 and Ian Happ was drafted in 2015, Happ's MLB debut in 2017 was a few years before Steele's first taste of the big leagues in 2021. In this post-World Series core world, Happ is the main bridge between the last group of winners and today.

When Happ was promoted on May 13th, 2017, he was a do-it-all utility man. He credited his willingness to play anywhere on the field as the means to earning playing time on a loaded Cubs team. At the University of Cincinnati, Happ split time between 2B and SS in 2013, mainly played in CF in 2014, and moved over to RF in 2015. As an athletic switch-hitter with excellent strikeout to walk ratios (116 K and 128 BB in 3 collegiate seasons), he had sky-high potential.

But it wasn't just his production that garnered 1st round attention leading up to the draft. It was his demeanor, how he treated his teammates, and how he approached the game. Happ has been a professional every step of the way.

Before the draft, Happ said: "For me, it's a learning process of trying to have quality at-bats even when the team is failing. No matter if you're up 10 or down 10 you still have to go into the box with the same approach, because you can't control every aspect of the game. That's baseball." (via Cincinnati Enquirer)

That sounds like a calloused veteran to me. Does Happ age backwards?

After finding himself in the lineup at mainly 2B and CF, getting some starts in the corner OF, and showing up a few times at the hot corner, Happ earned his place on the 3rd-consecutive NLCS Cubs team. People would kill for a 24 HR and .842 OPS rookie year! He followed up his impressive rookie campaign with the infamous leadoff HR to begin the 2018 season. After that, adversity hit.

"He's not happy. He shouldn't be happy. He was surprised. I really don't blame him." - Joe Maddon (via ESPN)

Happ spent the first 3+ months of the 2019 season in AAA. After feeling secure in your job for 2 years, a demotion would be tough to handle for anybody. It was definitely surprising for fans as well, since the offense needed a lift, and Happ still put up a decent .761 OPS in 2018.

He took the demotion seriously and worked on his swing. The results? Coming back with a vengeance. The end of his 2019 season back at Wrigley Field was incredible (11 HR and .898 OPS in 58 games), and he was the clear MVP of the offense during the COVID-shortened 2020 with an .866 OPS.

When he returned to the majors, he was as mature as ever: “It’s a job. You’re a professional, and when you’re asked to do something, when you’re asked to get better, you do your job.” (via Chicago Sun-Times)

Since then, Happ has been a consistent presence in the ever-changing Cubs lineup as Jed Hoyer worked to rebuild the organization that had left its cupboards bare. We’ve been able to count on 17-25 HR per year and a high .700s OPS. The Gold Gloves are a nice bonus, too!

So, he’s been here a long time. He’s a good player. Why does that connection to the former core even matter?

Built For This

The 2016 Cubs had superstars: Kris Bryant (7.3 WAR) and Anthony Rizzo (5.8 WAR) tore the cover off the ball that season. They also had the perfect leadoff hitter in Dexter Fowler, a professional hitter in Ben Zobrist, an up and coming shortstop in Addison Russell, and some young pop in Javier Baez and Willson Contreras.

But they also dealt with Jason Heyward’s non-existent bat, minimal production from the catchers, and they relied on Matt Szczur, Chris Coghlan, and Jorge Soler to fill the hole left by Kyle Schwarber after his injury. So why was that offense so good?

They grinded at-bats.

How do you give yourself a chance to win every single game? How do you frustrate opposing pitchers and empty out bullpens throughout a series? You see a lot of pitches, and you control the strike zone.

The 2016 Cubs saw 3.96 pitches per plate appearance, which was 4th in MLB. From 2017 to 2019, they sunk to the bottom half of the league. In 2016, they walked the most times in MLB (656). The post-core Cubs have actually resorted back to respectable rankings. This year’s team is currently tied for 10th in MLB with 3.91 pitches per plate appearance and is 9th in walks with 253.

Happ is seeing 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season, which is 39th in MLB. His power showed up in Philadelphia last week, but otherwise his power has taken a backseat to making the starter work and getting on base. He has spoken multiple times about doing anything possible to be on base for Tucker, Seiya, and PCA behind him.

For a guy who walked a ton in college, learning how to take walks in the majors was a challenge at first. Conversations with Ben Zobrist in 2016 stuck with Happ:

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“It’s not easy to walk in the big leagues.”

To Happ’s credit, his walk totals have increased during his career:

He’s seeing a lot of pitches, drawing walks, and currently has the best contact % (79.2%) of his career. Oh, and he’s in the 78th percentile in Chase % (23.3%). Sounds like an excellent leadoff hitter to me.

And for everyone worried about his slow start to the season, just remember last year’s struggles that preceded a scorching June, July, and August with high .800 OPSs. He must hate cold April baseball, but who can blame him? The power is still there, and it will show up in bunches.

I’ll be the first one to tell you that PCA is the leadoff hitter of the future. As his plate discipline continues to improve and he chases less often, he’ll be the perfect fit. He’ll be one of the best pure hitters on the roster (deserving the most at-bats) and is obviously electric on the basepaths. But for now, he’s a prototypical slugging cleanup hitter who can run into any pitch no matter where they throw it.

Plus, you want a leadoff hitter who’s been around. Who understands Chicago. Who can step into the spotlight and not back down. Who has a vast knowledge of the game and some severe scars from the 162 game grinds.

Ian Happ lives and breathes Chicago and is proud to be here. And I’m glad he’s leading off.