Cubs Head Into The All-Star Break Poised For Another October Run

Two road series wins closed out the first half for the Cubs. A sweep in Baltimore slipped out of their fingers when Tyler Ferguson and Ryan Rolison gave up a 3-2 lead in the 8th inning of Game 3. Matthew Boyd lived up to my ace claim with a scoreless 6-inning gem to start the series. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 2-HR game helped cap off his MLB-best 5.9 fWAR 1st half with a 152 wRC+, 10.9 BB%, and .916 OPS. Oh, and he already has his 2nd consecutive 20/20 season. Aside from a Hunter Greene masterclass (7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K), the offense found just enough production to take 2 of 3 from the Reds in Cincinnati. Alex Bregman hit 2 HRs in the series after a key mechanical adjustment.

The Cubs also added an infusion of pitchers into the organization. Cade Townsend, a right-hander from Ole Miss, leads a draft class of 16 pitchers and 5 hitters who were selected over the weekend. One of the glaring deficiencies of the Jed Hoyer era has been pitching development, and a chance to stock up on talent was badly needed. Townsend had a solid sophomore season (14 GS, 3.94 ERA, 12.4 K/9) that actually surpassed fellow Cade (Horton) in his only college season (11 GS, 4.86 ERA, 10.7 K/9). He relies on spin and wants to improve on his mid-90s fastball execution.

The All-Star Break is always a convenient benchmark for evaluating a team. It would be easy to write off the Cubs and their 54-42 record considering they were 57-39 at the break last year and ended up falling short in the playoffs. Every season writes its own story, and every half is a chapter of its own. Let’s look at a few successful Cubs teams of the past at the break:

2007 Cubs: 1 game over .500 (Division Champions)
2015 Cubs: 7 games over .500 (Wild Card, 97 wins)
2017 Cubs: 2 games under .500 (Division Champions)

54-42 puts them at the top of the Wild Card standings, 5 games back of the Brewers in the division, and on a 91-71 pace. That would be 1 game short of last season. If we look ahead to the playoffs, their rotation was supposed to be led by Cade Horton, Justin Steele, and possibly Edward Cabrera. Their shutdown relievers were going to be Daniel Palencia and Hunter Harvey. The IL has taken an incomprehensible number of victims, and I think Jed Hoyer was right when he banked on his players outperforming their projections. A healthy squad could even be on a 100-win pace right now.

Another month-long slump reminiscent of May or the 2024 late-season collapse is still on the table. The roller coaster is unpredictable. With that said, the Cubs are set up for another October run. They have their superstar (PCA), their position player group is one of the best in baseball (2nd in fWAR), their defense is elite, and the pitching staff can only go up from here. Health is the key to fielding a reliable bullpen that can actually push them through a 5-game playoff series. Now, please, catch the Brewers!

Rookies report to training camp on July 25th!

Connor Bedard’s injury at practice ended up being serious. He had surgery on his left shoulder this week and will miss the first month of the season. A 4-month recovery period is challenging on anyone, but a major injury to the Hawks’ franchise player who banged up his other shoulder last season is difficult to swallow.

This puts a damper on any excitement to start the year. It will still be enticing television to watch Roman Kantserov and Anton Frondell assimilate into the exciting young core, but missing Bedard leaves an insurmountable vacancy in the lineup. Hopefully, Jeff Blashill and Co. use this to their advantage. The Hawks have too many potential centers, so one more player will get a surprise shot up the middle. I hope Frondell, Nazar, Moore, and Greene will get some run to start the year. When Bedard missed time last season, the Hawks were either completely outmatched or they played a fundamentally sound, team-oriented brand of hockey, depending on the night. They need to use this time to lay more of a foundation for their play style, franchise player or not.

Caleb Wilson’s Summer League debut was electric. The Bulls lost to the Grizzlies 97-96 in an understandably choppy display of basketball from a bunch of guys who have never played together. Wilson maturely lamented the loss, but his performance was a sight for sore Bulls fans’ eyes. He scored 35 points on 12/21 FG and 7/11 3PT and took over the game multiple times. Summer League results are essentially meaningless in the same vein as preseason and Spring Training, but someone’s play style, demeanor, and athleticism can stand out from Day 1. Wilson made as many 3-pointers as he did in his entire season at North Carolina, and he said later in the week that he’s taking 2,000+ shots a day in the gym. The commitment and talent are there, and Game 1 was a fun way to start.

Dansby Swanson will get MVP votes.

Just 26 days ago, on June 16th, Dansby Swanson had a historically bad stat line:
.175/.281/.306, 67 wRC+

After an impressive month as a hitter, which included 2 record-setting pairs of games (3 HR, 11 RBI and 5 HR, 11 RBI), his stat line looks markedly better:
.210/.293/.411, 94 wRC+

Even though he’s playing better, the overall numbers will tell you that he’s a below-league average hitter. Who was the last .210 AVG, .700 OPS, 9-hole hitter who was constantly chased out of town by their team’s fans to get an MVP vote? I’m guessing it’s never happened before. So how is it even possible?

His Superman-like dives this week displayed the incredible defense he provides every single night. He’s 22nd in the NL with 2.4 fWAR, his 10.4 BB% and 23.6 K% are among his career-best and are a touch better than PCA, he leads the Cubs with 58 RBI, and he already has 16 HR and 12 SB. A Gold Glover with a 25 HR/20 SB season is a very good player. I’m rooting for him to silence all the haters and prove he was the right shortstop for this era of Cubs baseball. Plus, did you all forget he finished 19th in MVP voting in his first season as a Cub?