2025 Chicago Cubs: First Half in Review

First place with 66 games to go.

0.5 games back in the National League.

1.5 games behind the best team in baseball.

Best run differential (+119) in baseball.

2nd in baseball in runs scored (512).

The Cubs' first half was a resounding success, and nobody predicted they would be sitting 18 games over .500 at the All-Star Break. The most optimistic fans might have given them a 5 game cushion at the break, but a 96 win pace is insane after a pair of 83 win seasons.

So how did they get here? Jed Hoyer put all his chips into a newly acquired superstar and other players outperforming projections. For all the Jed doubters out there, his gambles are paying off big time.

Reviews by Position

Let's look at each position's performance in the first half. The bench will be evaluated separately, except catcher, since most of them are utility players.

Catcher

Miguel Amaya (27g) - .280/.313/.505, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 1.0 bWAR

Carson Kelly (62g) - .276/.376/.523, 12 HR, 33 RBI, 2.8 bWAR

Reese McGuire (20g) - .222/.246/.476, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 0.4 bWAR

Expectations: Exceeded

The Cubs were banking on Amaya's torrid July and August last year (.872 and .924 OPS, respectively) as a turning point for the former top prospect. He came back down to earth with a brutal September (.570 OPS), but they were comfortable pairing him with a veteran instead of searching for his replacement.

Amaya picked up where he left off before injuring his oblique on May 24th. The entire offense was lifted last season when he and Pete Crow-Armstrong figured it out at the plate, and this year is no different. Since he is under team control through 2029, his ascension is huge for future team success. The pitching staff continues to rave about his game management and ability to boost their confidence when they're on the mound.

Carson Kelly was a fine signing in the offseason. His Barry Bonds studies and first half performance are probably the biggest shocker of the season. Focusing on sitting back instead of lunging forward to the ball has changed his entire offensive profile. His Statcast percentiles have come down from the all-red rainbow we saw in April, but he is raking again in July (1.319 OPS) and seems to have figured out pitchers' adjustments to his new approach. Oh, and he's walking almost as much as he's striking out (32 BB to 37 K).

Reese McGuire was a minor-league signing back in January and has made the most of his opportunity. From homering twice in his Cubs debut to a perfect 3-for-3 game in throwing runners out on stolen base attempts, he's been a key fill-in during Amaya's IL stint. He has struggled at the plate, but it’s nice having another lefty power threat near the bottom of the lineup.

Defensively, this group has been a million times better than expected. After years of runners taking extra bases without fear, the Cubs have caught 32.4% of potential base stealers (3rd in MLB). All 3 catchers have a positive CS Above Average metric and solid pop times (McGuire leads the team at 1.92s). Framing still has room for improvement, but last year's dismal performance (3 players with -4 or worse Catcher Framing Runs) is definitely in the rearview mirror.

First Base

Michael Busch (90g) - .290/.375/.550, 19 HR, 59 RBI, 3.4 bWAR

Expectations: Exceeded

It was only a matter of time before Busch figured it out at the major league level. He crushed the ball at UNC and in the Dodgers' minor league system. Being blocked by Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani is a fair reason to be sent to another team, but he's already outperforming Freeman this season. THIS type of development is surprising. He's been one of the best hitters in baseball!

His triple dinger 4th of July put an exclamation point on an incredible first half. His 160 wRC+ is 1st in MLB among first basemen. His strikeout rate has decreased each year (33.3%, 28.6%, 22.6%), his fielding has been steady despite a lack of love from the metrics (1 DRS, -2 OAA), and he's barreling the ball in the 93rd percentile.

The Cubs have a true slugging first baseman again. After his spot start at leadoff last weekend, we're really starting to see shades of Anthony Rizzo...

Second Base

Nico Hoerner (92g) - .283/.331/.377, 3 HR, 39 RBI, 16 SB, 3.7 bWAR

Expectations: Exceeded

As the subject of many fan trade proposals last winter, Nico entered the season as the unsung hero of the team. I mean, he put up 4.2, 5.5, 3.7 bWAR in each of his last 3 seasons. He plays Gold Glove defense and makes a LOT of contact at the plate. On a team with very few spots available over the offseason, an upgrade at second base was on the table, mainly in the power department.

It feels like Nico turned it on as of late, but his July (.209 AVG, .617 OPS) has been his worst month so far. He hit a steady .295, .290, and .295 in the first 3 months of the season.

In the field, he's turning in a ridiculously good campaign. He has an MLB-best 9 OAA (among second basemen) and is 2nd in all of baseball with 15 DRS.

He's striking out at a career-low rate (7.4%), and the rest of his offensive numbers are very similar to past years. He's still Nico Hoerner. I'll admit I was pessimistic about his production when the season began, but he's now on a career-best bWAR pace (6.2).

After hitting 3 homers in just 5 games, he talked about the importance of slugging when trying to be a winning player. His total is still sitting at 3, but he's an extremely valuable player for the Cubs.

Third Base

Matt Shaw (63g) - .198/.276/.280, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, 0.6 bWAR

Expectations: Fell Short

99% of prospects struggle when they enter the big leagues. Craig Counsell walked PCA through the process last year, and now he's at it again with Shaw. Even though I knew Shaw would struggle this year, I held out hope for a higher floor as the Cubs tried to make their way back to the playoffs. From inexplicably batting 5th and looking lost in Japan, to a demotion to AAA, to a promising return to the big leagues, it's been a whirlwind.

With the Cubs entering a pennant race, the hole in the lineup is magnified. At least Shaw has been moved down to 9th in the lineup, which is what PCA did last year. His non-leg kick approach after his return to the majors led to a .906 OPS in 11 May games, but he fell off a cliff since then. It seems like the mechanical adjustments in correlation with the mental adjustments needed in the majors has slowed his transition.

The most promising part of his game has been his defense. Shaw was a college shortstop who played middle infield until 2024 when the Cubs asked him to start taking reps at third. He projected as a very good second baseman, but with Nico cemented in that spot, he had to move over to get a shot. He's tied for 6th in MLB at third base with 5 DRS, and he's made too many diving plays to count.

He's 23 and just turned pro. I'll give him a break. What other rookie has 2 walk-offs at Wrigley Field in their first season?

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson (95g) - .253/.301/.429, 16 HR, 47 RBI, 2.5 bWAR

Expectations: Met

Look, I'm tired of the Dansby Swanson slander. It's undeserved.

His struggles with runners in scoring position are indeed terrible. .158/.215/.253 is a starting pitcher before the DH type of stat line. That needs to improve, but let's not linger on one coincidental stat that is due for severe positive regression in the second half. He has a 133 wRC+ with nobody on base and a 26 wRC+ with RISP. How is that even possible? In his career, the numbers are reversed: 93 wRC+ with the bases empty and 105 wRC+ with RISP.

Outside of the RISP issue, he's still an extremely reliable shortstop with an average bat who plays every single day. His numbers are trending towards his best season as a Cub, especially since he already matched his home run total from last year. I expected a bump in production after he played so much of last year with an injury, and we are seeing it.

The defensive metrics haven't been kind (1 OAA), but the eye test still says he's elite with the glove.

Left Field

Ian Happ (86g) - .228/.326/.375, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 1.5 bWAR

Expectations: Fell Short

The longest tenured Cub and assumed leadoff hitter has struggled at the plate. He is on track to record his worst offensive season since 2021 when he finished at .226/.323/.434. He started the year by intentionally sacrificing power just to get on base more often in front of the team’s sluggers, but he found some power in June.

Historically, Happ is a streaky hitter. Whether Craig Counsell keeps him down in the order or not, he may just go off in August, which is his favorite month to hit (career .860 OPS). I remember his slump last year causing fits among Cubs fans. It was true then and is still true now - Happ is a good player in a slump.

Even when he isn’t locked in at the plate, his defense is still Gold Glove caliber.

Center Field

Pete Crow-Armstrong (95g) - .265/.302/.544, 25 HR, 71 RBI, 27 SB, 5.2 bWAR

Expectations: Exceeded

When I predicted an 88-win season, a big factor was because I believed in PCA as “the future face of the franchise”. And he arrived immediately.

PCA built on his strong 2024 2nd half by absolutely taking off into stardom. His power has surprised everyone as he’s pulling the ball in the air with authority (28.1 Pull AIR %). He’s making amazing contact on pitches in the zone (14.2% barrel rate, 83.4% Z-Contact%), and that’s turning into regular extra base hits.

Yes, he still chases bad pitches. Yes, he still doesn’t walk much (4.5% BB%). But he has been explosive at the plate. I see him as an elite leadoff hitter in the future, but the cleanup spot suits him well right now as he profiles as a pure slugger. Who would have thought the speedy, defensive center fielder would become the obvious cleanup candidate?

Oh, and everyone in the league keeps saying he’s the best center fielder they have EVER seen. 16 DRV, 16 OAA, and 13 DRS are off the charts. He runs down every ball hit between the infield dirt and the warning track. He’s caught 10 of 15 (66.7%) 5-star catches. Next best in the league is 4 catches at 40%.

It’s difficult to encapsulate the magnitude of the player PCA has already become. He’s electric, full of swag, and I love that he will be manning center field in front of that ivy for years to come.

Right Field

Kyle Tucker (95g) - .280/.384/.499, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 22 SB, 4.0 bWAR

Expectations: Met

The Cubs finally took a big swing in the offseason to land a star. Tucker was a proven superstar on that day, and he is still a superstar.

You could argue he has exceeded expectations because he’s on pace for the 2nd best offensive season of his career. In my opinion, this is exactly who the Cubs targeted and brought to town.

He has power. Speed. Poise. Presence. Plate discipline. Everything.

I can finally trust a Cubs hitter when they’re at the plate in a clutch spot in the 9th inning. He has walked the same number of times he has struck out (60)! He commands the strike zone at an elite level, and we haven’t seen a hitter this good in a Cubs uniform since the Bryzzo Souvenir Co. was sending baseballs into the bleachers.

Tom Ricketts, please sign this man.

Designated Hitter

Seiya Suzuki (92g) - .263/.319/.547, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 2.1 bWAR

Expectations: Exceeded

Seiya’s rocky MLB journey (which I recently wrote about here) came to a breaking point when he lost his starting RF job at the end of last season and was moved to DH. He reportedly wasn’t happy with the change, and Counsell admitted to a lack of communication during the whole situation.

Even though he dealt with injuries over his first three season in the States, Seiya was a top hitter in MLB over the last 1.5 seasons or so. His 2023 and 2024 seasons ended with nearly identical numbers because of red hot August/Septembers and some inconsistencies earlier on. He’s always had raw power and a good eye for the strike zone (despite every umpire’s miscues), but he hasn’t been available and in a rhythm for an entire season.

His first half has blown all expectations out of the water. He leads the league in RBI, he already surpassed his MLB-high in HR (previously 21), and he’s entrenched as the 3-hole hitter as the permanent DH. I’m happy for Seiya - he finally put it all together. Plus, his competition with little brother PCA is entertaining!

Bench

Justin Turner (50g) - .214/.298/.295, 2 HR, 13 RBI, -0.2 bWAR

Jon Berti (46g) - .219/.272/.240, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 11 SB, 0.3 bWAR

Vidal Brujan (32g) - .184/.205/.263, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, -0.2 bWAR

Gage Workman (9g, DFA) - .214/.267/.286, 0 HR, 2 RBI, -0.2 bWAR

Nicky Lopez (14g, DFA) - .056/.227/.056, 0 HR, 1 RBI, -0.3 bWAR

Expectations: Fell Short

Disaster. Car accident on the side of the road.

The bench was supposed to be markedly improved from last year’s mess. Turner was the veteran presence who still made extremely good contact. Berti was the reliable utility man who could put the bat on the ball and steal a few bases. Brujan, Workman, and Lopez were the tag team trio who would provide impactful starts at third base if/when Shaw needed time in the minors.

Everyone was a whiff. I actually miss Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni.

Jed will definitely address the position player depth at the deadline because right now, nobody can take a day off. The replacements are WAY below replacement level.

Starting Pitcher

Justin Steele (4gs) - 4.76 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 8.3 K/9

Shota Imanaga (12gs) - 2.65 ERA, 0.926 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

Matthew Boyd (19gs) - 2.34 ERA, 1.030 WHIP, 8.2 K/9

Jameson Taillon (17gs) - 4.44 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 7.0 K/9

Ben Brown (14gs) - 6.13 ERA, 1.525 WHIP, 10.3 K/9

Colin Rea (15gs) - 3.91 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

Cade Horton (10gs) - 4.45 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 6.8 K/9

Expectations: Fell Short

I hate injuries. Losing your ace for the entire season and your next best starter for 2 months is hard for any team to overcome. Steele going down was gut-wrenching after his recent injury battles and ascension into a team leader.

With the injuries in mind, a lot of guys positively stepped up. Overall, it’s been too much of a mixed bag.

On one end, Boyd has been elite week in and week out. He essentially gives you an automatic 6 innings of 2 runs or less. Shota hasn’t looked great compared to last season but is still getting impressive results. Hopefully he picks it up another notch in the second half.

Rea was on an early season Cy Young campaign before it all fell apart. He has an admirable stat line for a 6th starter/long reliever, so I’ll give him some credit.

Taillon had an impressive run of 5 straight quality starts not too long ago, but the rest of the season has been filled with too many duds. Opposing hitters are just teeing him up in the zone. Brown flashed his potential a few times but ultimately couldn’t keep up with big league hitting. I’m guessing he’ll throw impactful playoff innings out of the pen after his recent demotion to AAA. Horton is a rookie and has been inconsistent as expected.

18th in the league in ERA by starters is nowhere near good enough for a team hoping to make a deep run in October. The group has disappointed and owes the offense a lot of free dinners.

Bullpen

Daniel Palencia - 1.57 ERA, 12 saves

Brad Keller - 3.21 ERA

Porter Hodge - 6.85 ERA

Drew Pomeranz - 0.70 ERA

Chris Flexen - 1.47 ERA

Ryan Brasier - 1.10 ERA

Ryan Pressly - 3.28 ERA, 5 saves

Caleb Thielbar - 2.29 ERA

Julian Merryweather (DFA) - 5.79 ERA

Nate Pearson/Genesis Cabrera/Eli Morgan - Disaster

Expectations: Exceeded

A brutal start to the season left all Cubs fans in disgust. The inability to spend money on shutdown arms was causing another unnecessary debacle. They had a 4.76 ERA in March/April, which landed them at 26th in MLB. Oh, and they had 7 blown saves.

It was still surprising considering the additions they actually did make:

Here we are in July, and that 7th/8th/9th plan is out the window. Pressly lost his closer job early on because he can’t get a swing and miss from a little leaguer. Hodge has been injured and ineffective. Brasier has been solid but isn’t fully trusted by Counsell yet.

With so many other players either DFA’d or sent to AAA, it’s a miracle the Cubs have found enough arms to cover their innings. It’s even more of a miracle how many relievers have been completely shutdown pitchers and have grown together into an excellent bullpen.

They’re 6th in baseball in ERA (3.54), and Palencia’s emergence as the closer has had a huge impact. If he hadn’t taken that job, the rest of the structure would not have been able to hold up.

Rarely do we ever see 4 relievers with a lot of innings pitched sitting at an ERA under 2.00. Pomeranz and Flexen are writing a legend that our grandkids will hear about one day.

None of this makes sense, but I’m grateful. Despite their success, I see the bullpen as the team’s number one need heading into the trade deadline. Palencia is still new at this, and nobody else is trustworthy enough to get the key out in the 7th or 8th.

10 Best Games

March 31 - Cubs 18, Athletics 3

Sacramento Opening Day: Carson Kelly cycle, 21 hits and 4 HRs

April 13 - Cubs 4, Dodgers 2

Who’s that, LA?: PCA hit 2 HRs and a triple in his hometown, Rea filled in for Steele

April 18 - Cubs 13, Diamondbacks 11

8th inning drama: 16 run 8th inning capped off by a Kyle Tucker game-winning HR

April 22 - Cubs 11, Dodgers 10 (F/10)

Amaya heroics: Cubs were up 7-5 then down 10-7, Amaya tied it with a 9th inning HR off Tanner Scott, Happ walked it off on a single in the 10th

May 2 - Cubs 10, Brewers 0

Wrigley North Invasion: 9 runs in the first 2 innings, 2 PCA HRs, Busch grand slam

May 13 - Cubs 5, Marlins 4

Turner Walk-Off Magic: 3-run 9th inning comeback and a Justin Turner walk-off single, Moises Ballesteros debut

May 23 - Cubs 13, Reds 6

Pete Comeback-Armstrong: PCA hit a grand slam off the foul pole when down 6-4 in the 7th inning, 4 Cubs HRs

May 25 - Cubs 11, Reds 8

Reese McGuire Game: McGuire hit 2 HRs after Kelly was removed from the lineup due to illness, came back from an 8-3 deficit

July 3 - Cubs 1, Guardians 0 (F/10)

Shaweeeep: Matt Shaw walk-off sac fly, Reese McGuire gunned down 3 base stealers, Luis Ortiz scratched from his start due to gambling investigation

July 4 - Cubs 11, Cardinals 3

History: Franchise record 8 HRs, Busch was 4-for-4 with 3 HRs, PCA was 4-for-4 with 2 HRs

Second Half Outlook

The Cubs can make a playoff run.

I understand the Brewers are lingering, as always. I know injuries can happen anytime. I get that Jed has to navigate this trade deadline perfectly.

When you have a historic offense like this, you can win a ton of games.

Busch/Tucker/PCA/Seiya are hitting like 4 of the 10 best hitters in baseball. That’s unheard of for one team.

Meaningful games at Wrigley in September while trying to clinch a division? I’M HYPE, NEIL FUNK. This team is special - the comebacks, the homers, the unsung heroes, the journeymen, the young guns - all of it. I think they’ll make some magic later this year. Will it be enough to get to the World Series?